Palladium weekly special report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
PALLADIUM USE AND MARKET SHARE:
- Palladium is mostly used in catalytic converters by the car industry to reduce harmful gas emissions while tightening regulation is forcing automakers to put more Palladium into each vehicle, which in turn could keep the demand outlook positive. Palladium has also been used in fuel cells to generate power.
- MARKET SHARE (PRODUCERS): Russia is the largest producer holding 43% of the markets, while South Africa is the second largest with 33.00% of the markets. Canada is third on the list with 9.5% of the global production.
- MARKET SHARE (CONSUMERS): China is the largest Palladium consumer with 31%, while Europe and North America (USA) hold 20% each. Japan stands at 11%.
CHINA STIMULUS PACKAGES INCREASE GLOBAL DEMAND
- BREAKING (MARCH 17): CHINA UNVEILED A “SPECIAL ACTION PLAN” TO BOOST DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION. The plan was issued to all regions and departments to vigorously boost consumption, expand domestic demand in all directions, improve consumption capacity by increasing income and reducing burdens, a report from the Council said (Source: Reuters).
- BREAKING (MARCH 5): CHINA ANNOUNCED MORE STIMULUS. The government report outlined plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan ($178.9 billion) in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in 2025. Another 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) worth of special treasury bonds will be issued to support large state-owned commercial banks, and also 4.4 trillion yuan ($600 billion) of local government special-purpose bonds to help ease their financing strains.
- POTENTIAL IMPACT: These stimulus measures could lead to increased industrial activity and higher auto sales in China, potentially driving greater demand for palladium, which is widely used in catalytic converters.
DONALD TRUMP AND PALLADIUM DURING TRUMP’S FIRST PRESIDENCY (JANUARY 2017 - JANUARY 2021):
- NO SUBSIDIES FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLE SALES, THEREFORE HIGHER SALES OF TRADITIONAL CARS AND HIGHER USE OF PALLADIUM IN AUTOCATALYSTS TO PROTECT FROM GAS EMISSIONS.
- PALLADIUM ROSE 200% (OR $1,583.15) (JANUARY 20, 2017 - JANUARY 20, 2021): PALLADIUM ROSE FROM $788.86 (JANUARY 20, 2017) TO $2,372 (JANUARY 20, 2021) (Data Source: Meta Trader 4 Platform).
- DONALD TRUMP TOOK OFFICE FOR HIS SECOND TERM (JANUARY 20, 2025): PALLADIUM HAS RISEN AROUND 2% SINCE THEN.
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
EVENTS (CHINA):
- SUNDAY, MARCH 31 AT 01:30 GMT: CHINA MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (MARCH) (PREVIOUS: 50.2). A stronger-than-expected PMI could signal expanding industrial activity, boosting demand for palladium in China's manufacturing and automotive sectors.
EVENTS (USA):
- WEDNESDAY, MARCH 19 AT 18:00 GMT: FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but a rate cut could come as early as June. With inflation down to 2.8%, pressure is mounting on the Fed to act. A weaker dollar from potential rate cuts could boost commodity prices, including Palladium.
- THURSDAY, MARCH 27 AT 12:30 GMT: US GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Q4) (PREVIOUS: 2.3%). Strong economic growth could indicate robust industrial demand, positively impacting palladium prices.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS:
- ANALYST OPINION: Commerzbank forecasts $1,150; Deutsche Bank forecasts $1,023; JPMorgan forecasts $1,020; UBS forecasts $1,000; HSBC forecasts $1,060.
Data Source: Bloomberg Terminal
PRICE ACTION:
- PALLADIUM HIT AN ALL-TIME HIGH OF $3,409 (MARCH, 2022). Palladium trades around $967 and if the price of Palladium moves to the level of $3,409, this would be a 252% price change. However, the price could decline.
PALLADIUM, March 17, 2025
Current Price: 967
|
PALLADIUM |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1250 |
|
|
1150 |
|
|
1025 |
|
|
920 |
|
|
900 |
|
|
880 |
Example of calculation base on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
PALLADIUM
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
28,300 |
18,300 |
5,800 |
-4,700 |
-6,700 |
-8,700 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
25,968 |
16,792 |
5,322 |
-4,313 |
-6,148 |
-7,983 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
21,814 |
14,106 |
4,471 |
-3,623 |
-5,165 |
-6,706 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
40,530 |
26,208 |
8,306 |
-6,731 |
-9,595 |
-12,460 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 12:50 (GMT) 17/3/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.