Silver Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS TO SUPPORT DEMAND FOR SAFE- HAVEN INSTRUMENTS
- BREAKING (OCTOBER 1): IRAN LAUNCHED A MISSILE ATTACK AGAINST ISRAEL TO INCREASE DEMAND FOR THE SAFE- HAVEN SILVER. According to Reuters, Iran launched around 180 missiles towards Israel. That would make it a slightly larger attack than April's barrage, which saw about 110 ballistic missiles and 30 cruise missiles fired towards Israel.
CENTRAL BANKS: INTEREST RATE CUT DECISION
- BREAKING (SEPTEMBER 18): FEDERAL RESERVE ANNOUNCED ITS FIRST INTEREST RATE CUT SINCE 2020. US Federal Reserve decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% points on September 18, to 5.00% from the previous 5.50%. The bank expects to cut rates two more times in 2024 to slash its benchmark rate to 4.5% by the end of 2024. The bank expects rates to fall to 3.5% in 2025 and further down to 2.9% in 2026. NEXT FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: November 7, 2024. As of September 23, the market sees equal chances for 50 basis points or 25 basis points interest rate cut. This could bring current rates of 5.00% down to either 4.75% or 4.50%.
EVENTS:
- US INFLATION (CPI) (SEPTEMBER) (THURSDAY, OCTOBER 10 AT 13:30 GMT+1). US Inflation has fallen to 2.5%, which is the lowest rate since 2021. US Federal Reserve expects consumer prices in the USA to continue falling in 2024, 2025 and 2026.
OTHER ANALYSIS:
- SILVER DEMAND: The United States remains the most important market with 22% of global demand for silver, while China represents 15% of global demand for silver (Source: Bloomberg). China's economy could potentially grow by about 5%. Silver's recent upward momentum is underpinned by soaring global demand, particularly from the solar industry, which relies heavily on the metal for photovoltaic cells. India's silver imports have nearly tripled in 2024, contributing significantly to this demand. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions are bolstering silver’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
- CHINA UNVEILED A SLATE OF EASING MEASURES TO SUPPORT THE ECONOMY: Top consumer China unveiled a slate of easing measures to support the economy. China's finance ministry announces a 2 trillion yuan (around 285 billion dollars) fiscal stimulus package to support economic growth and achieve a 5% GDP target for the year.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
- UBS: The bank targets a price of $36.
- CITIGROUP: The bank targets a price of $40.
- JP Morgan: The bank targets a price of $34.
PRICE ACTION
- ALL-TIME HIGH PRICE: $49.80. Silver jumped to $49.80 in 2011, during the debt crisis in Europe. Currently, Silver trades around $30.40 and if full recovery is made this could offer an upside potential of around 64%. However, the price could decline further.
Silver, October 9, 2024
Current Price: 30.40
|
SILVER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
40.00 |
|
|
36.00 |
|
|
31.40 |
|
|
29.40 |
|
|
29.10 |
|
|
28.80 |
Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
SILVER |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
96,000.00 |
56,000.00 |
10,000.00 |
-10,000.00 |
-13,000.00 |
-16,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
87,562.88 |
51,078.35 |
9,121.13 |
-9,121.13 |
-11,857.47 |
-14,593.81 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
73,420.88 |
42,828.85 |
7,648.01 |
-7,648.01 |
-9,942.41 |
-12,236.81 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
131,215.68 |
76,542.48 |
13,668.30 |
-13,668.30 |
-17,768.79 |
-21,869.28 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:55 (GMT+1) 9/10/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.