Silver Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
EVENTS:
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FRIDAY, DECEMBER 6 AT 13:30 GMT: US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (NOVEMBER). US Unemployment rate is expected stay above 4%. This should further support market expectations that Fed could cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December.
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WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 11, AT 13:30 GMT: U.S INFLATION (CPI) (NOVEMBER): The U.S is scheduled to report its CPI figure for the month of November. The CPI inflation data from last month of October came out at 2.6%, up from the 2.4% in September. If it comes below the recent 2.6%, then Silver could be expected to rise in value.
NEWS:
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CHINA WILL ANNOUNCE MORE STIMULUS MESASURES: Markets are speculating that China will announce more stimulus measures during key political meetings this month, further strengthening the demand outlook in the world’s largest metals consumer.
CENTRAL BANKS: INTEREST RATE CUT DECISION
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BREAKING (NOVEMBER 7): FEDERAL RESERVE ANNOUNCED ITS SECOND INTEREST RATE CUT IN 2024. US Federal Reserve decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% points in September and 0.25% points in November. The bank expects to cut rates one more time in 2024 to slash its benchmark rate to 4.5% by the end of 2024. The bank expects rates to fall to 3.5% in 2025 and further down to 2.9% in 2026.
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NEXT FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: December 18, 2024 at 19:00 GMT. As of December 3, the market sees high chances for 25 basis points interest rates cut. This could bring current rates of 4.75% down to 4.50%.
SEASONAL TRADE: DECEMBER - JANUARY (2014- 2024)
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STATISTICS: SILVER ROSE 6.98% ON AVERAGE BETWEEN DECEMBER AND JANUARY (2014- 2024)
Data Source: MetaTrader 4 Platform
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
TEHNICAL ANALYSIS:
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STRONG SUPPORT AT $30. Silver has maintained strong support at $30 since May 2024. Since then, Silver would resist staying below $30 as bargain hunters come back to send price up back above $30.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
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UBS: The bank targets a price of $36.
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CITIGROUP: The bank targets a price of $40.
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JP Morgan: The bank targets a price of $34.
PRICE ACTION
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ALL-TIME HIGH PRICE: $49.80. Silver jumped to $49.80 in 2011, during the debt crisis in Europe. Currently, Silver trades around $30.80 and if full recovery is made this could offer an upside potential of around 62%. However, the price could decline further.
Silver, December 3, 2024
Current Price: 30.80
|
SILVER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
49.8 |
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
32.5 |
|
|
29.5 |
|
|
29.0 |
|
|
28.5 |
Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
SILVER |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
190,000.00 |
92,000.00 |
17,000.00 |
-13,000.00 |
-18,000.00 |
-23,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
180,793.97 |
87,542.34 |
16,176.30 |
-12,370.11 |
-17,127.85 |
-21,885.59 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
150,254.05 |
72,754.59 |
13,443.78 |
-10,280.54 |
-14,234.59 |
-18,188.65 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
266,790.40 |
129,182.72 |
23,870.72 |
-18,254.08 |
-25,274.88 |
-32,295.68 |
- 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units
- Calculations for exchange rate used as of 14:00 (GMT) 3/12/2024
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
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You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
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Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.