Silver Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
EVENTS:
- TUESDAY, JANUARY 14, AT 13:30 GMT: U.S. PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) (DECEMBER): The U.S. is reporting its PPI figure for the month of December. The monthly PPI data from last month of November came out at 0.4%, up from the 0.2% in October. If data comes in below the recent 0.4%, silver then could be expected to rise in value.
- WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 15 AT 13:30 GMT: U.S. INFLATION (CPI) (DECEMBER): US Inflation is expected to see an increase to 2.9% (its highest since July 2024), up from 2.7%, while Core Inflation is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3%.
US FEDERAL RESERVE HAS PROCEEDED WITH THEIR INTEREST RATE CUT CYCLE:
- BREAKING (DECEMBER 18): FEDERAL RESERVE CUT RATES TO 4.50% FROM 4.75% PREVIOUSLY. The FED has cut the interest rate by 25 bps as expected (from 4.75% to 4.50%). The bank has so far cut rates three times this year, slashing rates from initial 5.5% in September down to the current 4.50%. The bank expects to cut rates at least two more times in 2026 to slash its benchmark rate to 4% by the end of 2025. The bank expects rates to fall to 3.4% in 2026 and further down to 3.1% in 2027. Lower interest rates exert positive pressure on Silver.
- NEXT FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: January 29, 2025 at 19:00 GMT. As of January 3, the market sees high chances rates to remain unchanged at the current 4.50%.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- STRONG SUPPORT AT $30. Silver has maintained strong support at $30 since May 2024. Since then, Silver would resist staying below $30 as bargain hunters come back to send price up back above $30.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
- UBS: The bank targets a price of $36.
- CITIGROUP: The bank targets a price of $40.
- JP Morgan: The bank targets a price of $34.
PRICE ACTION
- ALL-TIME HIGH PRICE: $49.80. Silver jumped to $49.80 in 2011, during the debt crisis in Europe. Currently, Silver trades around $29.50 and if full recovery is made this could offer an upside potential of around 69%. However, the price could also decline.
Silver, January 14, 2025
Current Price: 29.50
|
SILVER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
49.8 |
|
|
40.0 |
|
|
31.2 |
|
|
28.0 |
|
|
27.5 |
|
|
27.0 |
Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
SILVER |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
203,000.00 |
105,000.00 |
17,000.00 |
-15,000.00 |
-20,000.00 |
-25,000.00 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
197,993.73 |
102,410.55 |
16,580.76 |
-14,630.08 |
-19,506.77 |
-24,014.13 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
166,795.39 |
86,273.48 |
13,968.09 |
-12,324.78 |
-16,433.04 |
-19,756.75 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
291,926.72 |
150,996.58 |
24,447.06 |
-21,570.94 |
-28,761.25 |
-35,983.91 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:30 (GMT) 14/1/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.