Silver Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND ITS NEW TARIFF POLICY TO SUPPORT SAFE-HAVEN DEMAND
- BREAKING (FEBRUARY 25): US PRESIDENT TRUMP ORDERED TARIFF PROBE INTO U.S. COPPER IMPORTS. President Trump signed an order at the White House directing Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to start a national security probe under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. That is the same law Trump used in his first term to impose 25% global tariffs on steel and aluminum.
- BREAKING (FEBRUARY 24): US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP CONFIRMED TARIFFS ON CANADA AND MEXICO WILL GO FORWARD AS PLANNED. Trump was asked at a press conference about the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which were postponed until March 4, 2025.
- BREAKING (FEBRUARY 18): US PRESIDENT TRUMP TO IMPOSE 25% ON AUTO AND PROBABLY 25% OR MORE ON PHARMACEUTICAL AND CHIP (SEMICONDUCTOR) IMPORTS. Trump said tariffs on automobiles would come as soon as April 2. Pharma and chip firms could face tariffs of 25% or above, but the timing remains uncertain (Source: Reuters).
- BREAKING (FEBRUARY 13): US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCED RECIPROCAL TARIFF PLAN. Trump signed a memo ordering his team to start calculating duties to match those other countries charge and to counteract non-tariff barriers such as vehicle safety rules that exclude U.S. autos and value-added taxes that increase their cost (Source: Reuters).
- BREAKING (FEBRUARY 10): US PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCED 25% TARIFFS ON STEEL AND ALUMINUM TO ALL COUNTRIES, TAKING EFFECT ON MARCH 4. President Donald Trump substantially raised tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to a flat 25% without exceptions or exemptions in a move to aid the struggling industries but which increases the risk of a multi-front trade war (Source: Reuters).
- BREAKING (FEBRUARY 4): CHINA RETALIATES BY IMPOSING 10% TO 15% TARIFFS ON SELECT U.S. PRODUCTS STARTING FEBRUARY 10. China’s finance ministry said it will impose 15% tariffs on coal and liquified natural gas imports from the U.S. and 10% duties on crude oil, farm equipment, and certain cars, starting February 10 (Source: Reuters).
EVENTS:
- FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 28 at 13:30 GMT: PCE (PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE) PRICE INDEX (JANUARY). This is an indicator of the average increases in prices for all domestic personal consumption and it is Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. A lower-than-expected result is generally supportive for the silver because it makes the FED more likely to lower interest rates, which is positive for metals.
- FRIDAY, MARCH 7 at 13:30 GMT: US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (JANUARY). US Unemployment rate is expected stay above 4.0%. The report will be closely watched as Fed interest rate decisions in 2025 will depend on the US employment market development.
- WEDNESDAY, MARCH 12, at 12:30 GMT: U.S INFLATION (CPI) (FEBRUAR): The U.S is scheduled to report its CPI figure for the month of February. The CPI inflation for January came out at 3%, up from the 2.9% in December.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- STRONG SUPPORT AT $30. Silver has maintained strong support at $30 since May 2024. Since then, Silver would resist staying below $30 as bargain hunters come back to send price up back above $30. However, there remains a risk of a potential breakout below this level if market conditions change.
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
- UBS: The bank targets a price of $36.
- CITIGROUP: The bank targets a price of $40.
- JP Morgan: The bank targets a price of $34.
PRICE ACTION
- ALL-TIME HIGH PRICE: $49.80. Silver jumped to $49.80 in 2011, during the debt crisis in Europe. Currently, Silver trades around $31.70 and if full recovery is made this could offer an upside potential of around 57%. However, the price could also decline.
Silver, February 26, 2025
Current Price: 31.70
|
SILVER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
40.00 |
|
|
36.00 |
|
|
32.80 |
|
|
30.80 |
|
|
30.30 |
|
|
29.80 |
Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
SILVER |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
83,000 |
43,000 |
11,000 |
-9,000 |
-14,000 |
-19,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
79,048 |
40,953 |
10,476 |
-8,571 |
-13,333 |
-18,095 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
65,572 |
33,971 |
8,690 |
-7,110 |
-11,060 |
-15,010 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
118,899 |
61,598 |
15,758 |
-12,893 |
-20,055 |
-27,218 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 9:30 (GMT) 26/2/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.