Silver Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS: US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AND ITS NEW TARIFF POLICY TO SUPPORT SAFE-HAVEN INSTRUMENTS DEMAND
- BREAKING (MARCH 4): 25% TARIFFS ON CANADIAN AND MEXICAN GOODS, AND ADDITIONAL 10% TARIFFS ON CHINESE GOODS, 10% TARIFFS ON ENERGY (OIL) FROM CANADA TO U.S. STARTED TAKING EFFECT ON TUESDAY, MARCH 4. CHINA: China responded immediately after the deadline, announcing additional tariffs of 10%-15% on certain U.S. imports from March 10 and a series of new export restrictions for designated U.S. entities. The cumulative 20% duty also comes on top of tariffs of up to 25% imposed by Trump during his first term on some $370 billion worth of U.S. imports. CANADA: Canada would respond with immediate 25% tariffs on C$30 billion ($20.7 billion) worth of U.S. imports and another C$125 billion ($86.2 billion) if Trump's tariffs were still in place in 21 days. MEXICO: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum was expected to announce her response during a morning news conference in Mexico City on Tuesday, the country's economy ministry said (Source: Reuters).
- BREAKING (FEBRUARY 13): US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP ANNOUNCED A RECIPROCAL TARIFF PLAN AND IT WILL START TO APPLY APRIL 2. Trump signed a memo ordering his team to start calculating duties to match those other countries charge and to counteract non-tariff barriers such as vehicle safety rules that exclude U.S. autos and value-added taxes that increase their cost (Source: Reuters).
CHINA: THE LARGEST CONSUMER OF SILVER IN THE WORLD
- CHINA NATIONAL PEOPLE’S CONGRESS MEETING (MARCH 5 – MARCH 11). China set its GDP (gross domestic product) growth target for 2025 at around 5%. China raised its budget deficit target to around 4% of GDP from 3% last year. The 4% deficit would mark the highest on record going back to 2010. China seeks to keep the urban unemployment rate, which stood at 5.1% last year, at around 5.5% and add more than 12 million jobs in urban areas (Source: CNBC).
- MORE STIMULUS ANNOUNCED: The government report outlined plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan ($178.9 billion) in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in 2025, 300 billion yuan more than last year. Another 500-billion-yuan ($69 billion) worth of special treasury bonds will be issued to support large state-owned commercial banks. The widened fiscal package also includes the issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan ($600 billion) of local government special-purpose bonds this year to help ease their financing strains (Source: CNBC).
EVENTS:
- FRIDAY, MARCH 7 at 13:30 GMT: US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (FEBRUARY). The US Unemployment rate is expected to stay around 4.0%. The report will be closely watched as Fed interest rate decisions in 2025 will depend on the US employment market development.
- WEDNESDAY, MARCH 12, at 12:30 GMT: U.S INFLATION (CPI) (FEBRUARY): The U.S is scheduled to report its CPI figure for the month of February. The CPI inflation for January came out at 3%, up from the 2.9% in December.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- STRONG SUPPORT AT $30. Silver has maintained strong support at $30 since May 2024. Since then, Silver would resist staying below $30 as bargain hunters come back to send the price up back above $30. However, there remains a risk of a potential breakout below this level if market conditions change.
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
- UBS: The bank targets a price of $36.
- CITIGROUP: The bank targets a price of $40.
- JP Morgan: The bank targets a price of $34.
PRICE ACTION
- ALL-TIME HIGH PRICE: $49.80. Silver jumped to $49.80 in 2011, during the debt crisis in Europe. Currently, Silver trades around $32.40 and if full recovery is made, this could offer an upside potential of around 54%. However, the price could also decline.
Silver, March 6, 2025
Current Price 32.40
|
SILVER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
40.00 |
|
|
36.00 |
|
|
33.50 |
|
|
31.40 |
|
|
31.00 |
|
|
30.60 |
Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
SILVER |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
76,000 |
36,000 |
11,000 |
-10,000 |
-14,000 |
-18,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
70,977 |
33,621 |
10,273 |
-9,339 |
-13,075 |
-16,810 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
59,210 |
28,047 |
8,570 |
-7,791 |
-10,907 |
-14,023 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
109,349 |
51,797 |
15,827 |
-14,388 |
-20,143 |
-25,899 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT) 06/03/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
Trailing stop technique could protect the profit