Silver Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS:
- MIDDLE-EAST TENSION: Rising geopolitical tensions increase the demand for safe-haven instruments such as Gold and Silver. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected holding negotiations with the United States over a nuclear deal. US President Donald Trump warned that "there are two ways Iran can be handled: militarily, or you make a deal".
- TRADE WAR: Trade wars increase global insecurity, increasing demand for safe-haven instruments such as Gold and Silver. US President Trump has declared that he will implement tariffs on various countries that, according to him, have treated the US unfairly in trade.
CHINA: THE LARGEST CONSUMER OF SILVER IN THE WORLD
- CHINA NATIONAL PEOPLE’S CONGRESS MEETING (MARCH 5 – MARCH 11). China set its GDP (gross domestic product) growth target for 2025 at around 5%. China raised its budget deficit target to around 4% of GDP from 3% last year. The 4% deficit would mark the highest on record going back to 2010. China seeks to keep the urban unemployment rate at around 5.5%, which stood at 5.1% last year, and add more than 12 million jobs in urban areas (Source: CNBC).
- MORE STIMULUS ANNOUNCED: The government report outlined plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan ($178.9 billion) in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in 2025, 300 billion yuan more than last year. Another 500-billion-yuan ($69 billion) worth of special treasury bonds will be issued to support large state-owned commercial banks. The widened fiscal package also includes the issuance of 4.4 trillion yuan ($600 billion) of local government special-purpose bonds this year to help ease their financing strains (Source: CNBC).
US FEDERAL RESERVE HAS BEGUN YET ANOTHER INTEREST RATE CUT CYCLE:
- FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE AT 4.5%. The US Federal Reserve decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% points in September, 0.25% points in November, and 0.25% in December. The bank expects to cut rates two more times in 2025 to slash its benchmark rate to 4% by the end of 2025. The bank expects rates to fall to 3.40% in 2026 and further down to 3.10% in 2027.
- NEXT FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: March 19, 2025 at 18:00 GMT. Markets have recently raised their expectations for three interest rate cuts in 2025, which could eventually bring rates down to 3.75% from the current 4.5% (Source: CMEGROUP.COM).
OTHER EVENTS:
- MONDAY, MARCH 17, AT 12:30 GMT: US RETAIL SALES (FEBRUARY): A lower-than-expected reading could be taken as positive for Silver, because it could motivate the FED to lower interest rates more aggressively in order to stimulate the economy. Retail sales measure the change in the total value of sales at the retail level. The figure for the previous month was -0.9%.
ANALYST EXPECTATIONS
- UBS: The bank targets a price of $36.
- CITIGROUP: The bank targets a price of $40.
PRICE ACTION
- ALL-TIME HIGH PRICE: $49.80. Silver jumped to $49.80 in 2011, during the debt crisis in Europe. Currently, Silver trades around $33.90 and if a full recovery is made this could offer an upside potential of around 47%. However, the price could also decline.
Silver, March 14, 2025
Current Price: 33.90
|
SILVER |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
43.00 |
|
|
40.00 |
|
|
35.00 |
|
|
32.90 |
|
|
32.50 |
|
|
32.00 |
Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*
|
SILVER |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
91,000 |
61,000 |
11,000 |
-10,000 |
-14,000 |
-19,000 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
83,769 |
56,153 |
10,126 |
-9,205 |
-12,888 |
-17,490 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
70,356 |
47,162 |
8,505 |
-7,731 |
-10,824 |
-14,690 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
131,209 |
87,953 |
15,860 |
-14,419 |
-20,186 |
-27,395 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 09:00 (GMT) 14/03/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.