Silver

Silver Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:

GEOPOLITICS:

• MIDDLE-EAST TENSIONS RISE: U.S. - ISRAEL TO MEET FOR HIGH-LEVEL TALKS ON IRAN AND ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM (EARLY NEXT WEEK). A senior Israeli delegation is expected to visit the White House early next week for strategic consultations about Iran. In a letter sent to Iran, US President Donald Trump gave Iran 2 months to reach a new nuclear deal. Before these details, Iranian President Pezeshkian and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that they will not negotiate with Donald Trump who gives orders and makes threats. (Source: Reuter and Axios)
• UKRAINE-RUSSIA WAR: U.S. - RUSSIA TALKS SCHEDULED FOR MONDAY IN SAUDI ARABIA (MARCH 24). U.S.-Russia negotiations on the war in Ukraine will continue Monday in Saudi Arabia, with a Russian delegation led by a senior intelligence officer and a former diplomat who were both involved in the 2014 Ukraine crisis. (Source: Reuters)
• TRADE WAR: Trade wars increase global insecurity, increasing demand for safe-haven instruments such as Gold and Silver. US President Trump has declared that he will implement tariffs on various countries that, according to him, have treated the US unfairly in trade.

US FEDERAL RESERVE HAS BEGUN YET ANOTHER INTEREST RATE CUT CYCLE:

• FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE AT 4.5%. The US Federal Reserve decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.50% points in September, 0.25% points in November, and 0.25% in December. The bank expects to cut rates two more times in 2025 to slash its benchmark rate to 4% by the end of 2025. The bank expects rates to fall to 3.40% in 2026 and further down to 3.10% in 2027.
• NEXT FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: May 7, 2025. Markets have recently raised their expectations for three interest rate cuts in 2025, which could eventually bring rates down to 3.75% from the current 4.5% (Source: CMEGROUP.COM).

OTHER EVENTS:

• TUEASDAY, MARCH 25 AT 14:00 GMT: US CB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (MARCH). The US consumer sentiment has been lately monitored closely by investors as it gives indications about future near-term economic outlook, especially with the ongoing trade wars. Data for February printed the lowest figures since June 2024, coming in at 98.3, below estimated 102.7.
• THURSDAY, MARCH 27, AT 12:30 GMT: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (Q4): A lower-than-expected reading should be taken as positive for silver, because it will push the FED to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. GDP measures the annualized change in the inflation – adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. This is the last reading for Q4 GDP in the USA. The previous reading for Q4 reported in February was 2.3%.
• FRIDAY, MARCH 28, AT 12:30 GMT: US PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES (PCE) PRICE INDEX (FEBRUARY): A fall in this index could point to the FED cutting interest rates sooner, which is supportive for silver. Data for January came in at 2.5%, down from December’s 2.6%.

ANALYST EXPECTATIONS

• UBS: The bank targets a price of $36.
• CITIGROUP: The bank targets a price of $40.

PRICE ACTION

• ALL-TIME HIGH PRICE: $49.80. Silver jumped to $49.80 in 2011, during the debt crisis in Europe. Currently, Silver trades around $32.90 and if the price moves to the levels from 2011, this would be a 51% price change. However, the price could decline.

Silver, March 21, 2025
Current Price: 32.90

Example of calculation based on trend direction for 1.00 Lot*

1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 10.000 units

2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:00 (GMT) 21/03/2025

There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.

• You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
• Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.