SPECIAL REPORT: US Stocks, Commodities, US Dollar
DATE OF REPORT: July 25, 2023
EVENT DATE: July 26, 2023
EVENT: US Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (19:00 GMT+1). Press Conference (19:30 GMT+1)
FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE (CURRENT): 5.25%. EXPECTED (JULY 26): 5.50%.
TABLE I: FEDERAL RESERVE INTEREST RATE DECISION AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON THE MARKETS
Source: Investing.com
- SCENARIO I (+0.25% points and STOP Interest Rate Hikes Afterwards) (Probability Rate= 70.1%**)
According to the CME FedWatch Tool*, the Fed is given a 70.1% probability rate that it will not continue raising interest rates after the July 26 meeting. The market participants might see greater chances for the prices of US Stocks and Commodities to rise, while the US dollar could go down.
- SCENARIO II (+0.25% points and CONTINUE Interest Rate Hikes Afterwards) (Probability Rate= 29.9%**)
According to the same tool, the Fed is given a 29.9% probability rate that it will keep raising interest rates after the July 26 meeting. In this case, considering the recent banking crisis, the market participants could see greater chances for the prices of US Stocks and Commodities to fall, while the US dollar may go up.