USD/CAD weekly special report based on 1 Lot Calculation:
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
- THE USD/CAD IS TRADING NEAR THE TOP OF ITS SIDEWAYS CHANNEL (BETWEEN 1.3200 AND 1.3850), TESTING ITS HIGHEST RATE IN THREE MONTHS. The chanel has been in place since mid- 2022, whereby the USD/CAD has tested the upper boundary of 1.38500 five times. On the downside, the USD/CAD has tested the lower boundery three times over the same period. The USD/CAD could be expected to soon undergo a downward correction after recently testing its upper boundary of 1.38500. However, the price could change further.
GRAPH: Weekly (July 2022 – October 2024)
Please note that past performance does not guarantee future results.
EVENTS:
CANADA:
- EVENT (THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31 AT 13:30 GMT+1): CANADA GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) (SEPTEMBER). Data is expected to show no economic growth in September, compared to previous 0.2% growth rate. If data comes higher than expected, the Canadaan dollar could rise in value, putting negative pressure on the USD/CAD currency pairs.
USA:
- EVENT (TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29 AT 15:00 GMT+1): CB CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (OCTOBER). Consumer confidence sharply fell in September, coming at 98.7, missing analysts’ expectations for a figure of 103.9. In addition, that marked a decline form August’s 105.6. Falling Consumer Confidence is a negative signal for the US economy, which in return, could have a negative impact on the US dollar.
- EVENT (FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 1 AT 13:30 GMT+1): US NONFARM PAYROLLS AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (OCTOBER). US Unemployment rate is expected to stay above 4%, but the Fed said that it could rise to 4.4% this year and 2025. This should further support market expectations that Fed could cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in November to 4.50%.
- EVENT (TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 5): US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. The US dollar is expected to be highly volatile into and after the election day as investors remain uncertain who will be the next president of the USA, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
- NEXT FED INTEREST RATE DECISION: November 7, 2024. As of October 23, the market sees higher chances for 25 basis points interest rate cut. This could bring current rates of 5.00% down to 4.75%. Lowering interest rates has historically had negative impact on the US dollar.
USD/CAD, October 24, 2024
Current Price: 1.3820
|
USD/CAD |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
1.4030 |
|
|
1.3980 |
|
|
1.3930 |
|
|
1.3700 |
|
|
1.3500 |
|
|
1.3200 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trnd direction for 1 Lot1
|
USD/CAD |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,520 |
-1,158 |
-796 |
869 |
2,316 |
4,488 |
|
Profit or loss in €2 |
-1,408 |
-1,073 |
-737 |
805 |
2,145 |
4,157 |
|
Profit or loss in £2 |
-1,174 |
-894 |
-615 |
671 |
1,789 |
3,466 |
|
Profit or loss in C$2 |
-2,100 |
-1,600 |
-1,100 |
1,200 |
3,200 |
6,200 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100,000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 13:00 (GMT+1) 24/10/2024
Fortrade recommends the use of Stop-Loss and Take-Profit, please speak to your Senior Account Manager regarding their use.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one
- Trailing stop technique can protect the profit – Ask your Senior Account Manager for more detail