USD/JPY Weekly Special Report based on 1.00 Lot Calculation:
GEOPOLITICS:
- TRADE WAR: JAPANESE YEN RISES MORE THAN 3% ON SAFE-HAVEN DEMAND. The potential implementation of future tariffs by Trump, coupled with uncertainty regarding geopolitical uncertainties boosted demand for safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen. Since the moment Trump announced tariffs (February 1) on China, Mexico and Canada, the Japanese Yen appreciated by 3.4% against the US dollar.
CENTRAL BANKS:
- WEDNESDAY, MARCH 19 AT 03:00 GMT: BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) INTEREST RATE DECISION. On January 23, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates from 0.25% to 0.50%, marking the highest level in 15 years. Rising inflationary pressure in Japan increases the likelihood of a rate hike in March or April. Furthermore, some economists believe that the Bank of Japan will raise rates to 1% by the end of 2025.
- WEDNESDAY, MARCH 19 AT 18:00 GMT: FED INTEREST RATE DECISION. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 97.5% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged, with the first rate cut expected no earlier than June. Meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve's last session revealed concerns about inflation and the potential impact of President Donald Trump’s policies on inflation. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.5% in March, but it is expected to cut rates to 4.00% by the end of 2025.
EVENTS:
- THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20, AT 13:30 GMT: U.S. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: A number higher-than-expected could point to the FED cutting interest rates more aggressively, which could have negative impact on the US dollar. Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.
- FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21, AT 14:45 GMT: S&P U.S. MANUFACTURING PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX (PMI) (FEB): A number lower-than-expected should be regarded as negative for the US Dollar. The PMI index measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A number above 50 indicates an expansion, while a number below 50 indicates a contraction in the sector.
- FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 28 at 13:30 GMT: PCE (PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE) PRICE INDEX (JANUARY). This is an indicator of the average increases in prices for all domestic personal consumption and it is Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. The price index for the month of December was 2.8%, and it has been increasing since June, 2024 (2.6%).
USDJPY, FEBRUARY 20, 2025
Current Price: 150.10
|
USD/JPY |
Weekly |
|
Trend direction |
|
|
153.00 |
|
|
152.50 |
|
|
152.00 |
|
|
148.00 |
|
|
146.00 |
|
|
144.00 |
Example of calculation based on weekly trend direction for 1.00 Lot1
|
USD/JPY |
||||||
|
Pivot Points |
||||||
|
Profit or loss in $ |
-1,933 |
-1,600 |
-1,267 |
1,400 |
2,733 |
4,067 |
|
Profit or loss in €² |
-1,852 |
-1,532 |
-1,213 |
1,341 |
2,618 |
3,895 |
|
Profit or loss in £² |
-1,533 |
-1,268 |
-1,004 |
1,110 |
2,167 |
3,224 |
|
Profit or loss in C$² |
-2,745 |
-2,272 |
-1,799 |
1,988 |
3,881 |
5,775 |
1. 1.00 lot is equivalent of 100.000 units
2. Calculations for exchange rate used as of 10:25 (GMT) 20/02/2025
There is a possibility to use Stop-Loss and Take-Profit.
- You may wish to consider closing your position in profit, even if it is lower than suggested one.
- Trailing stop technique could protect the profit.